2019 All-Ireland Predictions: Provincial and Joe McDonagh finals

Following on from the 2019 league predictions, the following details the BAINISTEOIR v2 predictions for the All-Ireland. Prior to each round, the All-Ireland is simulated, and each team’s overall performance is predicted. Additionally, the odds for each individual upcoming match are calculated. Following on from round 1, the results will be included in each update, and they’ll be compared to the computer predictions.

Lower tier finals wrap-up

The table below contains the results for the last round of matches, and compares them to the BAINISTEOIR v2 rating system’s predictions for each match. Next to the actual score is a number displaying how much each team scored above or below what the system predicted; this number is highlighted in red if the team performed below expectation, in green if they performed above expectation, and in yellow if they performed to expectation. Below are the system’s odds for each team to win, lose or draw. The favourite’s odds are highlighted in green if they went on to win the match, in red if they lost, and in yellow if they drew.

Christy Ring Final

2-15 (21, -2) Down - Meath 4-19 (31, +10)
(50.6% / 5.1% / 44.3%)

Nicky Rackard Final

2-13 (19, -4) Armagh - Sligo 2-14 (20, -1)
(53.3% / 5.1% / 41.6%)

Lory Meagher Final

2-22 (28, +7) Lancashire - Leitrim 2-23 (29, +13)
(72.3% / 4.4% / 23.3%)

Current All-Ireland odds

The charts below display each team’s odds of achieving each final outcome in the All-Ireland; based on a simulation which is run 1000 times, it shows what percentage of the time they won, were runners-up, reached the semi-finals, reached the quarter-finals, reached the preliminary round, failed to progress to the knock-out stages, and were relegated from their group.

The charts below display each team’s odds of winning the All-Ireland, and their starting groups of Leinster, Munster or the Joe McDonagh, following each round of the All-Ireland.

Provincial and Joe McDonagh finals predictions

Below is the BAINISTEOIR v2 rating system’s predictions for the upcoming matches. As well as the All-Ireland, it also includes games in the lower tier tournaments; the Christy Ring, Nicky Rackard and Lory Meagher cups. It displays each team’s odds of winning, losing or drawing their match, as well as the scoreline the system considers the most likely. Note that, due to rounding errors in the expected number of goals, this can sometimes give the underdog a slightly higher score than the favourite.

Leinster Final

54.0%
40.8%
1-19 (22) Kilkenny
-
Wexford 1-19 (22)

Munster Final

48.5%
46.2%
1-20 (23) Limerick
-
Tipperary 1-20 (23)

Joe McDonagh Final

42.3%
52.6%
1-18 (21) Laois
-
Westmeath 1-19 (22)