2019 League Predictions: Round 4

Round 3 wrap-up

The table below contains the results for the last round of matches, and compares them to the BAINISTEOIR v2 rating system’s predictions for each match. Next to the actual score is a number displaying how much each team scored above or below what the system predicted; this number is highlighted in red if the team performed below expectation, in green if they performed above expectation, and in yellow if they performed to expectation. Below are the system’s odds for each team to win, lose or draw. The favourite’s odds are highlighted in green if they went on to win the match, in red if they lost, and in yellow if they drew.

Division 1A

1-20 (23, -1) Cork - Clare 0-20 (20, -3)
(50.0% / 5.0% / 45.0%)
1-15 (18, -5) Wexford - Tipperary 1-14 (17, -5)
(51.2% / 5.1% / 43.7%)
0-15 (15, -9) Kilkenny - Limerick 2-18 (24, +1)
(55.2% / 5.1% / 39.7%)

Division 1B

3-17 (26, +0) Laois - Offaly 2-16 (22, +2)
(64.2% / 4.6% / 31.2%)
3-15 (24, -2) Waterford - Carlow 0-10 (10, -7)
(84.8% / 2.9% / 12.3%)
0-20 (20, -6) Galway - Dublin 1-11 (14, -6)
(79.7% / 3.4% / 16.9%)

Division 2A

3-16 (25, +2) Meath - London 3-10 (19, -1)
(49.4% / 5.2% / 45.4%)
1-15 (18, -6) Antrim - Westmeath 1-17 (20, -4)
(48.7% / 5.0% / 46.3%)
3-18 (27, +3) Kerry - Mayo 0-9 (9, -8)
(83.2% / 3.2% / 13.6%)

Division 2B

0-11 (11, -9) Warwickshire - Down 1-16 (19, -3)
(39.4% / 5.2% / 55.4%)
1-16 (19, -4) Kildare - Derry 0-21 (21, +2)
(65.2% / 4.6% / 30.2%)
0-15 (15, -9) Donegal - Wicklow 2-14 (20, +2)
(63.6% / 4.8% / 31.6%)

Division 3A

1-13 (16, -4) Lancashire - Louth 2-12 (18, -2)
(63.4% / 4.9% / 31.7%)
2-13 (19, -4) Tyrone - Monaghan 4-12 (24, +8)
(80.1% / 3.5% / 16.4%)
1-11 (14, -7) Armagh - Roscommon 0-18 (18, +0)
(49.7% / 5.3% / 45.0%)

Division 3B

2-18 (24, +2) Longford - Leitrim 0-16 (16, +0)
(69.0% / 4.5% / 26.5%)
4-19 (31, +8) Sligo - Cavan 2-6 (12, -6)
(77.6% / 3.7% / 18.7%)

Current league odds

The charts below display each division 1 team’s odds of achieving each final outcome in the league; based on a simulation run 1000 times, it shows what percentage of the time they won, were runners-up, reached the semi-finals, reached the quarter-finals, failed to progress to the knock-out stages, and were relegated. Note that, due to a change in structure in the 2020 season, there will be no relegation from division 1A this season.

The chart below displays each team’s odds of winning following each round of the league

Round 4 predictions

Below is the BAINISTEOIR v2 rating system’s predictions for the upcoming matches. It displays each team’s odds of winning, losing or drawing their match, as well as the scoreline the system considers the most likely.

Division 1A

56.5%
38.5%
1-20 (23) Tipperary
-
Kilkenny 1-19 (22)
62.3%
32.7%
1-20 (23) Clare
-
Wexford 1-18 (21)
63.0%
32.3%
1-21 (24) Limerick
-
Cork 1-20 (23)

Division 1B

4.0%
94.7%
1-14 (17) Offaly
-
Galway 2-23 (29)
36.9%
58.1%
1-18 (21) Dublin
-
Waterford 1-20 (23)
57.9%
37.2%
1-20 (23) Carlow
-
Laois 2-17 (23)

Division 2A

19.8%
76.4%
1-15 (18) London
-
Kerry 2-19 (25)
83.0%
13.9%
2-19 (25) Westmeath
-
Meath 1-15 (18)
29.3%
65.9%
1-16 (19) Mayo
-
Antrim 2-17 (23)

Division 2B

36.7%
58.3%
1-16 (19) Warwickshire
-
Derry 2-16 (22)
71.8%
23.8%
2-17 (23) Down
-
Donegal 1-16 (19)
45.3%
49.5%
2-16 (22) Wicklow
-
Kildare 2-17 (23)

Division 3A

43.7%
51.0%
2-14 (20) Louth
-
Armagh 2-15 (21)
54.8%
40.0%
2-14 (20) Monaghan
-
Lancashire 1-15 (18)
58.7%
36.1%
2-16 (22) Roscommon
-
Tyrone 1-15 (18)

Division 3B

46.1%
48.8%
2-13 (19) Cavan
-
Longford 2-15 (21)
75.2%
20.8%
2-16 (22) Leitrim
-
Fermanagh 1-13 (16)