2019 League Predictions: Round 5

Round 4 wrap-up

The table below contains the results for the last round of matches, and compares them to the BAINISTEOIR v2 rating system’s predictions for each match. Next to the actual score is a number displaying how much each team scored above or below what the system predicted; this number is highlighted in red if the team performed below expectation, in green if they performed above expectation, and in yellow if they performed to expectation. Below are the system’s odds for each team to win, lose or draw. The favourite’s odds are highlighted in green if they went on to win the match, in red if they lost, and in yellow if they drew.

Division 1A

0-17 (17, -6) Tipperary - Kilkenny 0-18 (18, -4)
(56.5% / 5.0% / 38.5%)
2-22 (28, +5) Clare - Wexford 1-22 (25, +4)
(62.3% / 5.0% / 32.7%)
1-21 (24, +0) Limerick - Cork 2-21 (27, +4)
(63.0% / 4.7% / 32.3%)

Division 1B

0-14 (14, -3) Laois - Galway 2-20 (26, -3)
(4.0% / 1.3% / 94.7%)
1-26 (29, +8) Dublin - Waterford 4-15 (27, +4)
(36.9% / 5.0% / 58.1%)
0-17 (17, -6) Carlow - Laois 0-17 (17, -6)
(57.9% / 4.9% / 37.2%)

Division 2A

1-11 (14, -4) London - Kerry 3-27 (36, +11)
(19.8% / 3.8% / 76.4%)
1-20 (23, -2) Westmeath - Meath 0-20 (20, +2)
(83.0% / 3.1% / 13.9%)
0-13 (13, -6) Mayo - Antrim 5-18 (33, +10)
(29.3% / 4.8% / 65.9%)

Division 2B

3-11 (20, +1) Warwickshire - Derry 2-18 (24, +2)
(36.7% / 5.0% / 58.3%)
3-21 (30, +7) Down - Donegal 1-15 (18, -1)
(71.8% / 4.4% / 23.8%)
2-17 (23, +1) Wicklow - Kildare 1-17 (20, -3)
(45.3% / 5.2% / 49.5%)

Division 3A

2-6 (12, -8) Louth - Armagh 2-17 (23, +2)
(43.7% / 5.3% / 51.0%)
3-17 (26, +6) Monaghan - Lancashire 0-16 (16, -2)
(54.8% / 5.2% / 40.0%)
1-25 (28, +6) Roscommon - Tyrone 1-11 (14, -4)
(58.7% / 5.2% / 36.1%)

Division 3B

0-13 (13, -6) Cavan - Longford 3-10 (19, -2)
(46.1% / 5.1% / 48.8%)
1-12 (15, -7) Leitrim - Fermanagh 2-15 (21, +5)
(75.2% / 4.0% / 20.8%)

Current league odds

The charts below display each division 1 team’s odds of achieving each final outcome in the league; based on a simulation run 1000 times, it shows what percentage of the time they won, were runners-up, reached the semi-finals, reached the quarter-finals, failed to progress to the knock-out stages, and were relegated. Note that, due to a change in structure in the 2020 season, there will be no relegation from division 1A this season.

The chart below displays each team’s odds of winning following each round of the league

Round 5 predictions

Below is the BAINISTEOIR v2 rating system’s predictions for the upcoming matches. It displays each team’s odds of winning, losing or drawing their match, as well as the scoreline the system considers the most likely.

Division 1A

47.5%
47.2%
1-19 (22) Wexford
-
Kilkenny 1-19 (22)
62.6%
32.7%
1-21 (24) Cork
-
Tipperary 1-19 (22)
47.3%
47.6%
1-20 (23) Clare
-
Limerick 1-20 (23)

Division 1B

71.8%
24.0%
1-20 (23) Carlow
-
Offaly 1-15 (18)
82.1%
14.7%
2-21 (27) Dublin
-
Laois 1-17 (20)
32.5%
62.7%
1-17 (20) Waterford
-
Galway 1-21 (24)

Division 2A

85.9%
11.4
2-20 (26) Antrim
-
London 1-15 (18)
84.5%
12.6%
2-20 (26) Kerry
-
Meath 1-15 (18)
90.8%
7.1%
2-19 (25) Westmeath
-
Mayo 0-14 (14)

Division 2B

69.3%
26.3%
2-17 (23) Donegal
-
Warwickshire 1-14 (17)
46.6%
48.1%
1-17 (20) Kildare
-
Down 1-17 (20)
61.7%
33.4%
2-18 (24) Derry
-
Wicklow 2-15 (21)

Division 3A

31.0%
64.0%
1-15 (18) Lancashire
-
Roscommon 2-16 (24)
40.7%
54.1%
2-14 (20) Louth
-
Monaghan 2-15 (21)
56.8%
38.1%
2-16 (22) Tyrone
-
Armagh 1-15 (18)

Division 3B

58.9%
36.1%
2-15 (21) Longford
-
Sligo 2-14 (20)
51.4%
43.4%
1-16 (19) Fermanagh
-
Cavan 2-13 (19)

Division 1 Permutations

With only one round left, it’s still not very clear how the league quarter finals will look. Only four teams have clinched a place in the knockout stages, only one team has been eliminated, and no team has secured their final position within the group; for the remaining 7 teams, the quarter finals are not merely a mathematical possibility, but still a reasonably likely one. What does each team need to do to secure their position? The list below explains where each team is at, where they could end up, and what the rating system believes is their most likely scenario. Finishing in the top four in 1A or 1B will grant the team a place in the quarter finals. Finishing in the bottom two in 1A will not result in relegation this year, as the format changes from 2020, but the bottom two teams in 1B will still have a relegation match to determine relegation to 2A.

  • Carlow (5th in 1B, 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, -20 score difference)

    • Carlow can still finish 4th, 5th or 6th in 1B.

    • Carlow are currently 1 point behind Laois, who they must overtake in order to advance and avoid a relegation game. However, they have a few things in their favour: Laois have a mountain to climb against Dublin in their final game, whereas Carlow have a home game against last-place Offaly. Because they drew, there’s no head to head advantage for either Carlow or Laois, and Carlow remain ahead on points difference

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Carlow beat Offaly, they will finish in 4th place unless Laois also beat Dublin.

      • If Carlow draw with Offaly, they will finish in 4th place, unless Laois beat or draw with Dublin

      • In all other scenarios, Carlow finish in either 5th or 6th place.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 64.69%

      • Median final position: 4th place (64.69% odds)

  • Clare (5th in 1A, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, -7 score difference)

    • Clare can still finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1A.

    • Clare are currently in 5th place on score difference, but have the same number of points as three other teams. Despite the poor scoring margin, Clare remain in a favourable position; they have head-to-head advantage over both Wexford and Kilkenny, meaning anything but a draw in their match will put Clare over the loser even if Clare lose to Limerick. Their final match against Limerick also gives them the potential to finish first in the division, though this scenario relies on either a very big swing in score, or very specific outcomes across the other 1A games (strangely, the same outcomes in the other matches will create the most dangerous situations for Clare if they draw or lose). It’s most likely that Clare will finish in the lower half of 1A, but they have a very large variety of routes to 4th place.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Clare beat Limerick, they will clinch a top-four spot in all scenarios. They are also the only team who could pip Limerick to the number one spot without a massive shift in scoring difference, should Cork fail to beat Tipperary and Wexford v Kilkenny end in a draw.

      • If Clare draw with Limerick, they will qualify unless Cork fail to beat Tipperary and Wexford v Kilkenny in a draw.

      • If Clare lose to Limerick, they will still qualify if Cork win or draw against Tipperary, and there is a winner between Wexford and Kilkenny. If Kilkenny and Wexford draw, Clare cannot qualify. If Cork lose to Tipperary, and there is a winner between Wexford and Kilkenny, Clare could still theoretically qualify on score difference, though this is unlikely

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 82.56%

      • Median final position: 4th place (61.72% odds)

  • Cork (4th in 1A, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, -5 score difference)

    • Cork can still finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1A.

    • Cork are currently in 4th on score difference. They hold an advantage over Clare in both the head-to-head and score difference, but are at a disadvantage to both Kilkenny and Wexford in scoring difference; a loss to Tipperary would guarantee that they’d also be below them in both head-to-head and scoring difference scenarios, resulting in either a 5th or 6th place finish, so their final game is a crucial one.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Cork beat Tipperary they are guaranteed to qualify, as they will be ahead on points of both Tipperary and one of Wexford or Kilkenny.

      • If Cork draw they will qualify unless Clare win and Wexford draw with Kilkenny, as this would see them lose on score difference to both Kilkenny and Wexford

      • If Cork lose, they can only qualify if Clare lose, Wexford and Kilkenny don’t draw, and Cork’s scoring difference is greater than both Clare and the loser of Wexford v Kilkenny, as this scenario guarantees that Tipperary will finish with a better score difference than Cork.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 67.18%

      • Median final position: 3rd place (61.62% odds)

  • Dublin (2nd in 1B, 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, +15 score difference)

    • Dublin can still finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in 1B.

    • Dublin are 2nd on head-to-head following their win over Waterford, with their only loss coming to current leaders Galway. They have already clinched a top three spot, and are unlikely to drop to 3rd place given their status as heavy favourites in the final match against Laois.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Dublin have already qualified. If both they and Waterford win, Dublin will finish in first place. If they lose and Galway fail to beat Waterford, or if they draw and Waterford win, Dublin will finish 3rd. They will finish in 2nd in every other scenario.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 2nd place (66.79% odds)

  • Galway (1st in 1B, 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, +27 score difference)

    • Galway can still finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in 1B.

    • Despite a shock draw to Carlow, Galway remain unbeaten, on top of division 1B, and are the most likely to finish on top of the group. They have clinched a quarter final space, and can’t drop further than third place. Waterford will likely be their toughest challenge in this the group stages, but Galway would still remain most people’s favourite in that match up. Indeed, Galway are the rating system’s current second favourite to win the league outright, after Limerick.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Galway have already qualified. They will finish first if they win or draw against Waterford. If they lose and Dublin win, Galway will drop to 3rd place, otherwise they’ll finish second.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 1st place (67.5% odds)

  • Kilkenny (3rd in 1A, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, -2 score difference)

    • Kilkenny can still finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1A.

    • As with all the teams on 4 points in 1A, Kilkenny are in a delicate situation. Despite currently being third, their situation is slightly more precarious than the others: Their head-to-head advantage over Tipperary is little use, as it would only kick in to put Kilkenny into 5th place instead of 6th. However, should they lose against Wexford, their scoring margin keeps them at an advantage over both Cork and Clare, should they both lose too, though they do lose to Clare in head-to-head situations.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Kilkenny beat Wexford they are guaranteed to qualify.

      • If Kilkenny draw with Wexford, they will qualify unless Clare beat Limerick and Cork beat Tipperary, resulting in 3 teams on 6 points, and Wexford beating Kilkenny on score difference.

      • If Kilkenny lose, they can only qualify if Tipperary and Limerick both win and if they maintain their superior scoring margin over Cork and Clare.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 50.93%

      • Median final position: 4th place (10.08% odds)

  • Laois (4th in 1B, 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses, -21 score difference)

    • Laois can still finish 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1B.

    • Laois have performed well at times in this league, easily defeating their traditional rival, Offaly. However, failing to prevent Carlow’s equaliser deep in injury time leaves them vulnerable. They’ll be massive underdogs in their game against Dublin, so Laois’ ability to hold onto 4th place will likely depend on Offaly winning their first game of the season away to Carlow.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Laois win, they are guaranteed to finish 4th and gain a quarter final place.

      • If Laois draw, they will finish 4th unless Carlow win; in this case, Laois would drop to 5th on score difference.

      • If Laois lose, they will only reach the quarter finals if Carlow also lose. Otherwise, they will drop to 5th place.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 35.31%

      • Median final position: 5th place (64.69% odds)

  • Limerick (1st in 1A, 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, +16 score difference)

    • Limerick can still finish in 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th place in 1A.

    • Limerick have contiinued their strong All-Ireland form, clinching a quarter final spot after 3 matches. Bizarrely, they are the only team in division 1A with a positive scoring difference. Because of this, despite the mathematical possibility of dropping to 3rd or 4th place, it would likely require multiple matches to be won by extremely lopsided margins.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Limerick have already qualified. If they win or draw, they will finish in first place. If they lose, Wexford and Kilkenny draw, and Cork fail to beat Tipperary, then they will drop to second on head-to-head despite the better scoring margin difference. Otherwise, they can only drop below first place if 3 or 4 teams all finish on 6 points, with at least one of them having a better scoring margin than Limerick.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 1st place (99.06% odds)

  • Offaly (6th in 1B, 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, -56 score difference)

    • Offaly can still finish in 5th or 6th place in 1B.

    • Despite appearing to make improvements in last year’s league, finishing 3rd with an upset over Dublin, Offaly have taken a noticeable step back since then. This year will mark Offaly’s first year to fail to reach the League quarter finals since 2014, though in that year they finished with 3 points and a positive 7 scoring difference. Currently winless, with a scoring difference more than twice as bad as the next worst team, the best Offaly can hope for is a token win over Carlow to go up to 5th place, followed by a win in the relegation match.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Offaly have already been eliminated from contention. They will finish in 6th place unless they can beat Carlow, in which case they will rise to 5th place. They will face either Carlow or Laois in the relegation playoff match.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 0%

      • Median final position: 6th place (76.00% odds)

  • Tipperary (6th in 1A, 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses, -1 score difference)

    • Tipperary can still finish 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1A.

    • Despite a strong start to the league with a convincing home win over Clare, Tipperary have stalled, losing three games in a row. However, all is not yet lost: Their narrow losses to Wexford and Kilkenny, along with their decisive win over Clare, has left them with the joint-second best scoring margin of any team. Should they beat Cork, they’ll be guaranteed to come out on top of a 3 or 4 way tie for third or fourth place, if such a tie arises.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Tipperary beat Cork, they will qualify due to superior scoring difference, unless Wexford and Kilkenny draw and Limerick fail to beat Clare. In these cases, they’ll finish in 5th place, ahead of Cork on head-to-head.

      • If Tipperary draw or lose, they will finish in 6th place, and fail to qualify.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 31.79%

      • Median final position: 6th place (67.30% odds)

  • Waterford (3rd in 1B, 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, +55 score difference)

    • Waterford can still finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd in 1B.

    • Waterford have built up an enormous +55 score difference over their four matches, but find themselves in only 3rd place on head-to-head following their loss to Dublin. They could still rise to 1st or 2nd place in 1B, though they will have to overcome current group toppers Galway to do so.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Waterford have already qualified. If they beat Galway and Dublin fail to beat Laois then they will rise to 1st place. If both they and Dublin win, or Waterford draw and Dublin lose, then they will finish in 2nd. In all other scenarios, Waterford would finish in 3rd place.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 3rd place (66.79% odds)

  • Wexford (2nd in 1A, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, -1 score difference)

    • Wexford can still finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1B.

    • Normally, being in second place with the second best points margin would offer some security, but Wexford could still easily drop out of the top four. Though not quite as risky, they’re in a similar spot to their upcoming opponents, Kilkenny. They could end up losing their place due to their head-to-head result with Clare, or due to a scoring difference that doesn’t have as much separation from the pack as they’d like. Winning their next match will be crucial if they want to keep matters in their own control

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Wexford win or draw they will qualify for the quarter finals; in the case of draws, their scoring margin over Kilkenny, Cork and Clare will guarantee that they have to finish in the final four.

      • If Wexford lose, they can only progress if Cork and Clare both lose and Wexford maintain a superior scoring margin to both (in this scenario, Tipperary would have a better scoring margin than the other three). In any scenario where Tipperary don’t win, they are below Clare due to the head-to-head result.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 52.80%

      • Median final position: 3rd place (2.69% odds)