2019 League Predictions: Round 5 and a half

Half of round 5 wrap-up

The table below contains the results for the last round of matches, and compares them to the BAINISTEOIR v2 rating system’s predictions for each match. Next to the actual score is a number displaying how much each team scored above or below what the system predicted; this number is highlighted in red if the team performed below expectation, in green if they performed above expectation, and in yellow if they performed to expectation. Below are the system’s odds for each team to win, lose or draw. The favourite’s odds are highlighted in green if they went on to win the match, in red if they lost, and in yellow if they drew.

Division 1A

2-11 (17, -6) Clare - Limerick 1-14 (17, -6)
(47.3% / 5.1% / 47.6%)

Division 1B

1-10 (13, -10) Carlow - Offaly 4-8 (20, +2)
(71.8% / 4.2% / 24.0%)
0-13 (13, -14) Dublin - Laois 0-11 (11, -9)
(82.1% / 3.2% / 14.7%)

Division 2A

1-16 (19, -7) Antrim - London 0-17 (17, -1)
(85.9% / 2.7% / 11.4%)
3-15 (24, -2) Kerry - Meath 0-8 (8, -10)
(84.5% / 2.9% / 12.6%)
2-12 (18, -7) Westmeath - Mayo 0-6 (6, -8)
(90.8% / 2.1% / 7.1%)

Division 2B

5-18 (33, +10) Donegal - Warwickshire 0-17 (17, +0)
(69.3% / 4.4% / 26.3%)
0-13 (13, -7) Kildare - Down 1-6 (9, -11)
(46.6%/ 5.3% / 48.1%)
0-16 (16, -8) Derry - Wicklow 2-16 (22, +1)
(61.7% / 4.9% / 33.4%)

Division 3A

2-13 (19, +1) Lancashire - Roscommon 1-6 (9, -13)
(31.0% / 5.0% / 64.0%)
1-10 (13, -7) Louth - Monaghan 1-11 (14, -7)
(40.7% / 5.2% / 54.1%)
3-16 (25, +3) Tyrone - Armagh 1-16 (19, +1)
(56.8% / 5.1% / 38.1%)

Division 3B

0-3 (3, -18) Longford - Sligo 3-16 (25, +5)
(58.9% / 5.0% / 36.1%)
1-14 (17, -2) Fermanagh - Cavan 0-5 (5, -14)
(51.4% / 5.2% / 43.4%)

Current league odds

The charts below display each division 1 team’s odds of achieving each final outcome in the league; based on a simulation run 1000 times, it shows what percentage of the time they won, were runners-up, reached the semi-finals, reached the quarter-finals, failed to progress to the knock-out stages, and were relegated. Note that, due to a change in structure in the 2020 season, there will be no relegation from division 1A this season.

The chart below displays each team’s odds of winning following each round of the league

Refixtures, quarter final, division finals and relegation play-offs predictions

Below is the BAINISTEOIR v2 rating system’s predictions for the upcoming matches. It displays each team’s odds of winning, losing or drawing their match, as well as the scoreline the system considers the most likely.

Division 1A

47.5%
47.2%
1-19 (22) Wexford
-
Kilkenny 1-19 (22)
62.6%
32.7%
1-21 (24) Cork
-
Tipperary 1-19 (22)

Division 1B

32.5%
62.7%
1-17 (20) Waterford
-
Galway 1-21 (24)

Division 2A

60.3%
34.6%
2-16 (22) London
-
Mayo 1-15 (18)

Division 1 Quarter Finals

7.1%
90.9%
1-16 (19) Laois
-
Limerick 2-22 (28)

Division Finals

45.4%
49.4%
1-16 (19) Westmeath
-
Kerry 1-17 (20)
41.8%
53.0%
1-17 (20) Derry
-
Wicklow 2-16 (22)
51.5%
43.1%
1-16 (19) Roscommon
-
Armagh 1-15 (18)
68.8%
26.7%
2-15 (21) Sligo
-
Longford 1-13 (16)

Relegation Play-Offs

49.7%
45.2%
2-16 (22) Offaly
-
Carlow 1-18 (21)
67.5%
28.0%
2-17 (23) Donegal
-
Warwickshire 1-15 (18)

Division 1 Permutations

Though it was hoped that we’d know the final standings of divisions 1A and 1B by now, half of the round 5 games had to be postponed last weekend. As such, while we now have a slightly clearer picture of what’s to come, a quarter final berth remains within reach for every 1A team, while the 1B seeding is still to be determined. The following details where each team stands, and what they can still do:

  • Carlow (6th in 1B, 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, -27 score difference)

    • Carlow have finished 6th in 1B, and will play Offaly in the 1B relegation play-off.

    • Over the weekend, they could have clinched a quarter final spot by defeating or drawing with Offaly. However, they underperformed and lost badly, meaning they’ll be meeting again in the 1B relegation playoff. If they win, they will remain in division 1 next year. Otherwise, they will be relegated back down to division 2A.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Carlow have been eliminated from contention. They will face the team in 5th place in 1B, Offaly, in the 1B relegation play-off.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 0%

      • Median final position: 6th place (100% odds)

  • Clare (2nd in 1A, 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, -7 score difference)

    • Clare can still finish 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1A.

    • Clare are currently in 2nd place in 1A, with all games played, following their draw against Limerick. However, they will drop at least one spot, and potentially as low as 5th place, depending on the results of Cork vs Tipperary and Wexford vs Kilkenny.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Tipperary fail to beat Cork, and if Wexford draw with Kilkenny, then Clare will drop to 5th place on score difference, and fail to reach the quarter finals.

      • If Tipperary win, and Wexford and Kilkenny do not draw, then Clare will finish in 3rd place.

      • In all other scenarios, Clare will finish in 4th place.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 96.43%

      • Median final position: 4th place (65.46% odds)

  • Cork (5th in 1A, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, -5 score difference)

    • Cork can still finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1A.

    • Cork are currently in 5th place on score difference, with one game to play. They hold an advantage over Clare in both the head-to-head and score difference, so even a draw would suffice, but a loss to Tipperary would guarantee that they finish in the bottom two, as they would have a worse scoring difference than Tipperary, and fewer points than 3 other teams.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Cork beat or draw with Tipperary they are guaranteed to qualify.

      • If Cork win and Wexford and Kilkenny draw, Cork will finish in 2nd place in 1A.

      • If Cork win or draw, and there is a winner between Wexford and Kilkenny, Cork will finish in 3rd place.

      • If Cork draw and Wexford and Kilkenny draw, Cork will finish in 4th place in 1A, on score difference.

      • If Cork lose then they will not qualify for the quarter finals. If Wexford and Kilkenny draw, then Cork will finish in 6th, otherwise they could come either 5th or 6th, depending on score difference.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 67.30%

      • Median final position: 3rd place (63.73% odds)

  • Dublin (1st in 1B, 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, +17 score difference)

    • Dublin can still finish 1st or 2nd in 1B.

    • Dublin had a surprising amount of difficulty putting away Laois, only getting ahead after Laois went down to 14 men. However, unlike Laois, they were already assured of a quarter final spot going into that game. That win put Dublin into 1st place in 1B, a position that they could still hold, depending on how the final 1B game goes.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Dublin have already qualified. If Waterford beat Galway, Dublin will finish in 1st place in 1B, on head-to-head results. Otherwise, Dublin will fall to 2nd place.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 2nd place (67.5% odds)

  • Galway (2nd in 1B, 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, +27 score difference)

    • Galway can still finish 1st or 3rd in 1B.

    • With one game left, Galway remain unbeaten, and are guaranteed a quarter final spot. They can finish either first or third, but not second, due to their head-to-head advantage over Dublin

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Galway have already qualified. They will finish 1st if they win or draw against Waterford. Otherwise, they will finish in 3rd place.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 1st place (67.5% odds)

  • Kilkenny (4th in 1A, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, -2 score difference)

    • Kilkenny can still finish 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th in 1A.

    • Kilkenny are currently in 4th place in 1A, with a game in hand, though they could rise or fall two places depending on this weekend’s result.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Kilkenny beat or draw with Wexford they are guaranteed to qualify for the quarter finals.

      • If Kilkenny win, they will finish in 2nd place, as they have the head-to-head advantage over Cork.

      • If Kilkenny draw and Cork win, Kilkenny will finish in 4th place, as they would finish 2nd out of the 3 teams on 5 points on score difference.

      • If Kilkenny draw and Cork draw or lose, Kilkenny will finish in 3rd place, as they would remain ahead of both Cork and Clare on either points or score difference.

      • If Kilkenny lose, then they will not qualify for the quarter finals. If Cork win or draw then Kilkenny would finish in 5th place. If Cork lose then Kilkenny would finish in 5th or 6th place on score difference, as Tipperary would be guaranteed to have a better scoring margin in this scenario.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 52.50%

      • Median final position: 4th place (3.32% odds)

  • Laois (4th in 1B, 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, -23 score difference)

    • Laois have finished 4th in 1B, and will play Limerick in the quarter finals

    • Though Laois narrowly failed to guarantee their fourth place spot by defeating Dublin, Offaly’s win over Carlow meant that they held on regardless. Laois now find themselves in their first league quarter finals since 2014. Though a great accomplishment for a team that have had to deal with relegation play-offs for the last four years in a row, they’ll be very heavy underdogs against Limerick.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Laois have finished 4th in 1B, and will play the team that finished 1st in 1A, Limerick.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 4th place (100% odds)

  • Limerick (1st in 1A, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, +16 score difference)

    • Limerick have finished 1st in 1A, and will play Laois in the quarter finals

    • Limerick failed to maintain their perfect opening to the league, finishing with a loss and a draw, but it was still sufficient to guarantee the top spot in division 1A, no mean feat for any team. They’ll now go into the quarter finals as heavy favourites over Laois, who despite putting in some good performances to get back into the league quarter finals again after five years away, will likely struggle to cope with the reigning All-Ireland champions.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Limerick have finished 1st in 1A, and will play the team that finished 4th in 1B, Laois.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 1st place (100% odds)

  • Offaly (5th in 1B, 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, -56 score difference)

    • Offaly have finished 5th in 1B, and will play Carlow in the 1B relegation play-off.

    • Offaly had a dreadful league overall, and were already going into their final group game knowing they’d be in the 1B relegation play-off for the first time in five years. They managed to avoid going winless by defeating Carlow, but they’ll need to beat them all over again in order to avoid relegation to division 2.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Offaly have been eliminated from contention. They will face the team in 6th place in 1B, Carlow, in the 1B relegation play-off.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 0%

      • Median final position: 5th place (100.00% odds)

  • Tipperary (6th in 1A, 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses, -1 score difference)

    • Tipperary can still finish 4th, 5th or 6th in 1A.

    • Despite losing three games already, Tipperary have maintained a relatively strong score difference, which could still be their ticket to the quarter finals. A win over Cork and anything but a draw between Wexford and Kilkenny would guarantee that they would come out on top of a three way tie on 4 points.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Tipperary beat Cork and Wexford and Kilkenny draw, Tipperary will finish 4th and gain a quarter final spot. Otherwise, Tipperary will be eliminated from contention.

      • If Tipperary win and Wexford and Kilkenny draw, Tipperary will finish in 5th place, and contend a play-off against Cork to determine seeding for the 2020 league. (from 2020, divisions 1A and 1B will be considered parallel, rather than 1A being above 1B. Seeding is required to ensure that both groups are of relatively even strength)

      • If Tipperary draw or lose, they will finish in 6th place, and fail to qualify. They would play either Clare, Kilkenny or Wexford in the seeding play-off.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 30.97%

      • Median final position: 6th place (67.30% odds)

  • Waterford (3rd in 1B, 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, +55 score difference)

    • Waterford can still finish 2nd or 3rd in 1B.

    • Despite their massive score difference, Waterford can no longer finish in 1st place, due to their head-to-head result against Dublin. However, they can not drop any lower than their current position of 3rd in 1B.

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • Waterford have already qualified. If they beat Galway, then they will finish 2nd in 1B. Otherwise, they will finish in 3rd place in 1B.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 100%

      • Median final position: 3rd place (67.50% odds)

  • Wexford (3rd in 1A, 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, -1 score difference)

    • Wexford can still finish 2nd, 3rd, 5th or 6th in 1B.

    • Wexford are an almost identical position to Kilkenny, though with slightly better scoring difference. Otherwise, they’re on the same points, have beaten the same teams (Tipperary and Cork), and have lost to the same teams (Limerick and Clare). Their head-to-head disadvantages no longer matter, as a draw would put them in at least a three way tie against Clare and Kilkenny, in which they’d come out on top on score difference, and they can no longer catch Limerick on points. They could finish as high as 2nd, but could also drop to 6th, depending on their own result and the result of Cork and Tipperary

    • Paths to the quarter finals

      • If Wexford win or draw they will qualify for the quarter finals. Otherwise, they will not progress.

      • If Wexford win, or if Wexford draw and Cork draw, they will finish in 2nd place in 1A, as they would have either the head-to-head or scoring margin advantages over Cork and Kilkenny.

      • If Wexford draw, and Cork win, then Wexford would finish in 3rd place, with their scoring difference putting them ahead of Kilkenny and Clare.

      • If Wexford lose and Cork win or draw, Wexford would finish in 5th place, and would play 6th place Tipperary in the seeding play-off.

      • If Wexford lose and Cork lose, Wexford would finish in either 5th or 6th on scoring difference, as Tipperary would be guaranteed to have a better score difference than both Cork and Wexford. In this scenario, Wexford would play Cork, who would also finish either 5th or 6th, in the seeding play-off.

    • BAINISTEOIR v2 odds

      • Odds to clinch a quarter final spot: 52.80%

      • Median final position: 3rd place (3.32% odds)